Commerzbank - Lower supply to offset commodity demand shock

Commodities,including iron ore, have surprised positively this year despite the Covid-19 pandemic. There has been a big demand shock, but this has been coupled with a considerable supply reduction, thereby balancing the market, according to Commerzbank head of commodity research Eugen Weinberg.

“不过，需求的冲击更大，所以我很悲观，”Weinberg本周在法兰克福举行的MBI Stahl Tag会议上表示，Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）出席了会议。大多数分析师预测，油价可能要到明年才能恢复到50美元/桶以上。Weinberg认为，如果新冠肺炎疫苗研制成功，最早将在2022年“......恢复正常”。

Office and commercial buildings will suffer because of the crisis, but ware houses will benefit. Also, residential construction is doing well. Interest rates are lower than ever before, making it a good time to take out credit to make investments.

Weinberg表示，中国很可能是2020年唯一实现经济增长的国家，因为中国已经基本上从疫情冲击中完全恢复，并且正在从容地处理危机。他补充说，如果乔·拜登赢得美国总统大选，美国对中国的贸易政策不太可能改变，这意味着国际贸易风险依然存在。

Global steel demand will rebound in 2021 but remain below pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels.Besides China, which will record output this year, meanwhile, other countries will see production decline notably in 2020, followed by moderate growth in 2021, Weinberg commented.

同时，在镍行业，由于疫情的影响，计划于2020年进行的供应扩张在一定程度上被推迟，今年以来全球产量下降了15%。镍需求因不锈钢产量减少而大受影响。不过，由于镍在电动汽车电池生产中的使用量增加，长期前景要强得多。

Iron oreprices will average at $100/tonne in 2020, falling to $88/t in 2021. Nickelwill average at $13,300/t in 2020, rising to $17,100/t next year.