CIS billet delicate balance, China may raise prices

CIS billet export trade remains in the balance, with relatively low levels of demand matching an equally moderate amount of available supply. This creates a certainvacuum in the market for the involvement of traders, and stifles much needed momentum to establish future direction, market participants tell.

由于市场上的11月方坯“……不多”，卖家的报价仍在410-415美元/吨fob黑海，因钢厂和船期而异。但需求仍在更低的400美元/吨fob，包括中国在内，促使卖家接受并完成11月和12月大部分产品的交易，达成少数传统的大宗交易。这使得中国以外的贸易渠道缺少供应。

As China's appetite for billet is assessed as still having potential to grow this month,there may even be an improvement on current price levels. This is another reason why sellers are keeping offers firm and waiting, a trader says. Already,$445/t cfr China has been achieved by a Vietnamese mill, although this material has a 2% duty advantage over CIS material, Kallanish notes.

贸易商称，南美对包括方坯在内的各种产品的需求也很旺盛。上周晚些时候，达成一笔3.5万吨土耳其高碳60级（高碳和高锰含量）方坯的直接交易，实际价格为411美元/吨fob土耳其。本周，一位贸易商以类似价格购买了1万吨土耳其方坯，供应非洲。

There are other supporting factors for Black Sea billet appearing, such as recovering Turkish import scrap prices, firm Russian domestic scrap prices and strong longproducts demand in Russia. The latter limits supply to the market by keepingseasonal sellers away from the already scarce market, as they continue tore-roll billet, which could be marketed for export, into rebar for domesticmarket. Several sources expect a mild winter also, with the extended construction season keeping long products demand propped up.