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Commerzbank - Lower supply to offset commodity demand shock

September 25, 2020

Commodities,including iron ore, have surprised positively this year despite the Covid-19 pandemic. There has been a big demand shock, but this has been coupled with a considerable supply reduction, thereby balancing the market, according to Commerzbank head of commodity research Eugen Weinberg.

“不过,需求的冲击更大,所以我很悲观,”Weinberg本周在法兰克福举行的MBI Stahl Tag会议上表示,Kallanish(开阑商务信息咨询)出席了会议。大多数分析师预测,油价可能要到明年才能恢复到50美元/桶以上。Weinberg认为,如果新冠肺炎疫苗研制成功,最早将在2022......恢复正常”。


Office and commercial buildings will suffer because of the crisis, but ware houses will benefit. Also, residential construction is doing well. Interest rates are lower than ever before, making it a good time to take out credit to make investments.



Global steel demand will rebound in 2021 but remain below pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels.Besides China, which will record output this year, meanwhile, other countries will see production decline notably in 2020, followed by moderate growth in 2021, Weinberg commented.



Iron oreprices will average at $100/tonne in 2020, falling to $88/t in 2021. Nickelwill average at $13,300/t in 2020, rising to $17,100/t next year.